For 1st time Greens within 3% of NDP according to Feb 16 Ipsos Reid Poll

Jim Harris

The Green Party is in a 'virtual tie' with the NDP across Canada according to a newly released poll by Ipsos Reid. The Green Party is at 10.5% while the NDP is at 13.3% -- the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.35% 19 times out of 20. So the Green Party is within the margin of error of the NDP. (scroll down for graph). The Liberals are at 29.5% while the Conservatives are at 36.1% and the Bloc at 9.2%.

A long list of polling companies over the last few months have put the Green Party ahead of, tied with or on a 'virtual tie' with the NDP -- Ipsos Reid, Strategic Counsel and Harris Decima among others -- so the Green Party's rise compared to the NDP can no longer be said to be a once-off occurance it's now a clearly emerging trend.

This is the first time ever that the Green Party has been in a 'virtual tie' with the NDP in an Ipsos-Reid poll (see bottom of this post for list of other blogs highlighting this trend).

In a National Post article today (Feb 16) Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid, notes that the NDP, would be facing a rough ride if an election was called now, as its' polling numbers have dropped to "historically low levels."

Some Regional Breakdowns
In Ontario the NDP slipped another point to 14%, while the Green party rose to 13% of decided voters.

In Quebec, the Green Party is at 11% ahead of the NDP at 10%.

In Alberta the Green Party is at 12% ahead of the NDP at 10% (this bodes well for the provincial election underway) while the Liberals ate at 16%.

Of course the Green Party is ahead of the Bloc across Canada in national support -- nothing new here -- this has been the case for the last year -- and the trend is highlighted more in other polling companies' results.

The Ipsos Reid poll is interesting for a number of other reasons. Here's the most important one: a staggering 62% of Canadians say they might switch their vote before the next election -- to me this indicates they are deeply dissatisfied with all the old-line, traditional parties. There is very little commitment by the vast majority of voters to any of the old line parties.

A second reason is the large gender gap. The Conservatives support of 36% across Canada is made up of 42% support among males and 31% among females. While the Liberal support of 29% is made up of is 24% support among men and 34% among women. In this poll the Green Party has pretty much equal male and female support.

The gender gap is another reason Elizabeth's being in the debates will change everything. As the only female leader she'll be able to really shake up Canadian politics.

This, of course is amazing news for the Greens -- and helps explain our continuous, unabated rise in popularity. The Conservatives according to Ipsos-Reid are down marginally from the 2006 election (-0.2%), the Liberals are down 0.7%, the NDP are down 4.2% and the Bloc is down 1.3%. Meanwhile the Green Party has more than doubled our support (+5.5%)! Go Greens Go!

It's a nice graph to look at on a Saturday morning.

Other blogs highlighting Trends of Green Party surpassing NDP

Green's Support Surpasses NDP's in Canada for First Time Ever: GPC is 3rd National Party

Greens Surpass NDP in Ontario for 1st time ever